Is China Investing in Iran After Losing Hope with CPEC?
Oct 29 , 2019
Anan Aamir https://www.chinausfocus.com/finance-economy/is-china-investing-in-iran-after-losing-hope-with-cpec
Came across this bizarre and disturbing assessment. Restraining forces which are bent upon scuttling CPEC are doing thier utmost to throw-up wonky narratives. The author seems to have very little knowledge about ground realities. Being imaginative is good but imaginations ought to be confined within bounds of irrefutable realities. A hyper imaginative mind may one day conclude that since weather is not harsh it may be raining on the Sun.
CPEC is a reality and Daniel Markey has said, “CPEC cannot fail – that is a political and diplomatic impossibility”. Undoubtedly, China has its ambitions and it needs certain allies for that. Pakistan, Iran, India and Afghanistan can fill these slots. However, each country has a peculiar set of advantages and limitations. These are based on geography, historical relationship with China, topography and demography. Based on these ground realities a particular country has a peculiar relevance for China. In all these aspects Pakistan is irreplaceable unless we decide to quit and China has no option but to choose the lesser evil. No port in the World has cargo handling capacity equivalent to Gawadar. Chabahar’s capacity is 20 times less than that of Gawadar. No country has been historical ally of China. Even if we imagine that Iran can replace Pakistan how will Iran be accessed by China? How will secure passage be ensured through Afghanistan which is still in control of US and India.
Karakorum Highway KKH has a relevance for CPEC. I call it as a prelude of CPEC. Will China dump this legacy of KKH and already built port of Gwadar and start a fresh for a new corridor.
For any change like BRI and CPEC, there are enabling and restraining forces. Enabling forces work for the change to occur while restraining forces strive for the change not to take place. It is incumbent upon enabling forces to reduce, curtail and mitigate potential of restraining forces. Because, if they gain greater potential than the enabling forces the change will no more be possible. Visibly, so far the US and India are on the lead of restraining forces. India had been wooing Iran and had even succeeded to get it on board. If Gwadar formed a pearl in Chinese strategy of String of Pearls, Chahbahar was supposed to be a diamond in Indian strategy of Necklace of Diamonds. China through huge investments in Iran is attempting to wean Iran away from restraining forces and in particular India. It is basically meant to curtail potential of restraining forces and secure CPEC.
Ladakh episode as well as agreements with Iran are China’s bidding to mitigate potential of restraining forces and secure CPEC.
If we follow anology of the author then we can even conclude that China is investing in Bangaldesh and Myanmar becuase China is no more interested in CPEC. I shall rather like to draw another analogy and put the worthy author in company of Modi and Trump based on this joke:
Narendra Modi announced in a news conference that India would be sending a man to the sun within ten years!
A reporter said – “But the sun is very hot. How can your man land on the sun?”
There was a stunned silence. Nobody knew how to react.
Then Narendra Modi quietly answered “We will land at night”.
The entire audience broke out in thunderous applause !
Back in the White House, Donald Trump and his entourage were watching the news conference on TV.
When Trump heard what Modi had said, he sneered – “What an idiot. There is no sun at night time !”
Now, his cabinet broke up in thunderous applause !!
Hail CPEC. Pakistan Ziandabad. Pak-Cheen Dosti Zindabad.