Pakistan’s Predicament

Pakistan is surrounded by three countries facing instability. In the East, US’ strategic ally – India is confronted with self created chaos by annexation of Kashmir and Citizenship Amendment Bill. India is in turmoil as protests, agitation and sectarian strife are brewing. In the West, in Afghansitan US’ presence is causing instability. US is struggling hard to find a face saving exit. Notwithstanding, desperation of the US to leave Afghnaistan, mercurial leader of the agitated, frustrated and reactive sole super power has opened another front. Droning of Gen Qassem Suleimani has fomented instability in third neighbour of Pakistan. Pakistan: a country that has faced perpetual conflict since late 70s is yet again faced with dreadful scenario. Conflict of US and Iran is that of unequals. Iran being the weaker side, in my view will opt for asymmetric warfare; a choice of the weaker. It appears US hasn’t picked up right lessons from Afghanistan or vested political interests have outweighed to create situation of BFO (Blinding Flash of the Obvious). Situation of Iran has created a linkage between instability of Afghanistan and Iran. Afghanistan may become yet another proxy of Iran to bleed the US. Apparently exit of US from Afghanistan has become more improbable. Pakistan which was craving and struggling for stability, growth and development has once again been surrounded by “Arc of Instability”. Balochistan, a strategically important province of Pakistan (in view of CPEC) facing instability due to neighbouring Afghanistan will now face Iranian instability. In all three surrounding unstable countries around Pakistan, the US has a role to play. In greater perspective, instability surrounding Pakistan can endanger smooth execution of CPEC. Pakistan will face impact of sectarianism incase of showdown between Iran and US (supported by KSA). Pakistan will have to play a balancing act to keep insulated. Allah may help Pakistan and Islam.

8 thoughts on “Pakistan’s Predicament”

  1. Excellent geopolitical picture portrayed… FO must pay serious attention towards Iranian border and try to develop a pragmatic political relationship with Iran. US must be realised that the weaker countries should not be taken as a piece of cake. There is a dire need to develop unity among the Muslim countries. OIC, KSA and Malaysia must come forward in this situation. COAS should not come the face.

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  2. With Bibi Netanyahu under clouds of corruption charges and Trump tasting impeachment (even if notionally) they would love to degrade Iran’s strategic capability before they leave the scene. Iran has to avoid this trap. In the event of a conflagration only Israel stands to gain, all other stake holders stand to lose. Pakistan has to tread on thin ice. A slight misstep can precipitate a strain on foreign policy goals and foment internal instability.

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  3. sir, ya have used “DOMINO EFFECT THEORY” to explain geopolitical challenges to Pakistan. I don’t think this will work as Pakistan moves into 2020. there are a clear proposition and stance from our military bureaucracy that Pakistan will not allow any outsider to use its soil. I don’t mean that Pakistan will not affect, however, the interregional impact on Pakistan would be minimum. ( BARRY BUZAN, ” regions and power: the structure of international security 2003)
    I just wanna add two points regarding the US-IRAN conflict. there is also a possibility that IRAN will opt for an arms race and build nuclear weapons to deter US aggression.

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    1. If we have fire surrounding us all around we should remain in illusion that we shall not be affected. There will be direct and indirect impact. We should prepare for the worsr

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