Author: sammilogger

Imperilled Pakistan

A sore heart prevented me from taking a pen for pretty long time. Sore because of injustice, lack of rule of law, incivility, imprudence and high-handedness in the society. The above cited blog was written in May 2018. Not only what I wished then got missed but I feel we have gone bad to worst. The purpose of my write-up isn’t to cast aspersions or blame someone. In fact the purpose is to show my concern as a patriot and highlight how Pakistan is hostage to egos and vested interests. Biggest wish is that we realise sooner than later and stop damaging this beautiful country. Let the system grow to overtake personalities.

A beautiful and blessed country is shackled by not so desirable attitudes, personal egos and vested interests. A saner mind would be at loss to understand the rationale behind our collective pursuits. Our national energy is getting consumed in unnecessary battles.

Pakistan is unfortunately located amidst a troubled neighbourhood. One side is India which is big but not great. It spares no opportunity for damaging Pakistan. On the second side is dysfunctional Afghanistan which has itself become a gave-yard to earn the title of grave-yard of empires. It has remained disturbed for over 200 years in its modern history. Third side is a sanctioned Iran which brings-in its own part of challenges. Only normal and benevolent neighbour is China. China holds tremendous promises-laden opportunities for Pakistan.

To top it all, again and again the region has come to centre stage of rivalry of giants. First British Empire and Soviet empire locked horns prior creation of Pakistan. Second, US came to give crushing blow to Soviet Empire in finale of Cold War. The region was still reeling out of ill-effects of these conflicts that world witnessed calamity of global terrorism. Once again two giants ie forces of order led by the US and forces of disorder led by AlQaeda were entangled. Max price was paid by Pakistan and Afghanistan while enemies of Pakistan got a hey day. Defence minister of Pakistan lately admitted that Pakistan did dirty work for the West. This admission was expected to mean that Pakistan will not do such a dirty work in 21st Century Geopolitics. However, ground indications show that may be owing to its inherent vulnerabilities Pakistan is once again shying from moving away from the US.

In such a complex and dreading geo-strategic environment Pakistan’s house in order is a critical requirement. Contrarily on internal front Pakistan has moved from bad to worst. In 2017 while writing my book, I mentioned three beautiful convergences which bode well for promising future of Pakistan. Firstly we had won war against terrorism, secondly, CPEC; a positive opportunity came on the horizon and thirdly Pakistan was transitioning towards relatively better democracy. Unfortunately last three years have seen reversal on all three. In last three years a controversial regime change was followed by active hostilities with all three neighbours of Pakistan ie Afghanistan, Iran and India. Prior to ambitious BRI, China settled its disputes with 14 of its neighbours as BRI wasn’t possible without stable external front. Contrarily, Pakistan is vying for CPEC with instability in and around it.

Regime change has left Pakistan divided and agitated. In any setup there ought to be at least one personality or department which is non-controversial and acceptable to all. Such an entity helps in resolving disputes. Today’s Pakistan doesn’t hold any personality or department of that stature and acceptability. Consequently, the fight is on and the country is suffering. For last three years Pakistan is fighting a battle on this front which is turning bad and bad with no end is sight. The situation got compounded due to pulls and pushes of global geopolitics and estrangement with India and Afghanistan. Though we gave a crushing blow to India in May 2025, which checkmated it in conventional domain but it exacerbated unconventional challenges from India and Afghanistan.

All three dimensions ie Sino-US rivalry, estrangement with Afghanistan and vitiated inner front are complementing each other. While first two may not be of our making but third one is definitely of our own making.

Basic strand of strategy is to bring our challenges to as less a number as possible, preferably to one so that one can focus. But ironically we are fighting on all the fronts simultaneously.

Pakistan must reassess its strategic orientation. Alignment with China secures our future albeit it will not be free of challenges. However it will be far better on CBA than alignment with the West (will explain this in another blog). Internally powers in Pakistan must submit to the will of the people of Pakistan as injunctioned by founding father Quaid e Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah (Allah may bless his soul). Pakistan must be left on auto-mode. Let it self correct itself.

Political temperatures may be cooled down even at the cost of ego. We may prefer victory of Pakistan over own victory. It’s so dreading to see people of KP and Punjab exchanging barbs. It can be disastrous for the federation.

President of Pakistan known as master of reconciliation may step forward and inject some sanity. It’s his national obligation. This division and infighting has the potential to seriously damage Pakistan.

The West which has extricated from the region may be left to rest in peace and Pakistan should collaborate with regional countries to seek stability, growth and development in the region. Over doses of conflict have ruined our body politic. Pakistan should shun any form of conflict within and without.

May Allah bless sympathetic and fair consideration to my thoughts. Allah may guide us in preferring victory of Pakistan over victory of an organisation or individual.

Education is a defining part of human life. Human is also called a social animal. It’s the education supported my cognition which transforms an animal per se to a human. Mostly it’s a point to ponder that what is real education?

My teacher at school level (Allah may bless his soul) had defined education as:

• Learning to learn
• Learning to evaluate, and
• Learning to lead

There is a common debate on difference between qualification and education. Qualifications get us jobs whereas education transform our personalities. In my view basic attribute of an education ought to be that it impacts the personality of the subject. Any much of education which fails to have an impact on personality can be anything but education. Possessing knowledge doesn’t mean that the possessor is educated. Thus we may find a PhD who has abundance of knowledge but still may be uneducated as his knowledge failed to imapct his personality.

Above cited video gives another interesting dimension of education.

Watching President Trump’s diplomacy, I am reminded of the “Chicken” game. It has been popular in many countries particularly in the US. It is played by two drives each in a car. They drive into each other with a possibility of a fatal crash and see which one of the two chickens out. The one that swerves is called Chicken and the one who stays the course is the winner. In this game, both players before start of game commit some gimmicks to befool the other. They may wear dark glasses, make wind screen muddy, project themselves as insane, play loud music. All these gimmicks are made to make the opponent believe that crash might occur inadvertently. So the weaker at heart chickens out.

There are certain strategies employed by each player to defeat the other like:

• Commitment Strategies:Players can attempt to commit to not swerving, making it a credible threat that the other player must react to. This might involve actions that make it seem impossible to swerve or signaling a strong resolve not to. 
• Preemptive Actions:Launching an initiative before the opponent has a chance to react can force them to play defensively. This can create a situation where the opponent is reacting to your moves, rather than initiating their own
• Brinkmanship: Players might push the situation to the brink of a negative outcome (like a crash) to try and force the other player to concede.
• Mixed Strategies:Players might adopt a strategy where they sometimes choose one action and sometimes another, making it harder for the opponent to predict their behavior. 

Bertrand Russel wrote this about this game:

Since the nuclear stalemate became apparent, the governments of East and West have adopted the policy that Mr Dulles calls ‘brinkmanship’. This is a policy adapted from a sport that, I am told, is practiced by some youthful degenerates. This sport is called ‘Chicken!’…..As they approach each other, mutual destruction becomes more and more imminent. If one of them swerves from the white line before the other, the other, as they pass, shouts ‘Chicken!’, and the one who has swerved becomes an object of contempt. As played by irresponsible boys, this game is considered decadent and immoral, though only the lives of the players are risked. But when the game is played by eminent statesmen, who risk not only their own lives but those of many hundreds of millions of human beings, it is thought on both sides that the statesmen on one side are displaying a high degree of wisdom and courage, and only the statesmen on the other side are reprehensible. This, of course, is absurd. Both are to blame for playing such an incredibly dangerous game. The game may be played without misfortune a few times, but sooner or later, it will come to be felt that loss of face is more dreadful than nuclear annihilation. The moment will come when neither side can face the derisive cry of ‘Chicken!’ from the other side. When that moment comes, the statesmen of both sides will plunge the world into destruction.

Over a period of time President Trump has projected himself as brash, aggressive, bold, dauntless, and brink-man. He by design raises the bar for the opponent to make him acquiesce to the target the intended by him. In case of India there is a clash between Geopolitical interests and economic interests. President Trump for the time being is focusing more on the latter. US can never afford to lose India owing to its strategic rivalry with China. Although it seems the US has lost faith in capacity of India to compete China. Notwithstanding that, India still has great value for the US.

It seems presently President Trump is focusing on immediate objective of weaning Pakistan away from China. This objective if achieved can serve better to compliment overall objective of containment of China. Once this objective is achieved the US will once again shift to rely on India for further building on this objective.

Pakistan has to walk a tight rope. It can annoy none of the two ie the US and China. However, its very evident that future of Pakistan lies with China. All depends how well can Pakistan do the balancing act in diplomacy while safeguarding its national interests.

9/11 happened in the first year of 21st century and that of second mallenia. Terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre was the last of the eighteen events that altered the path of human civilization ever since 1899. This was an act of aggression against the sole superpower of the world. Defeat of competing superpower i.e., the Soviet Union had made the US arrogant, over-confident and complacent. The attacks caught the US in total surprise. The prestige and ego of the sole superpower was badly mauled. It was the biggest shock to the prevalent world order. Simon Jenkins says, “No single figure since the Second World War has made so profound an impact on world events as Osama Bin Laden”. 9/11 changed America fundamentally. It was the new “Pearl Harbour” for them. The US administration which was following “Isolationist” policies got committed to robust overseas intervention. 9/11 also illustrated the dark side of hither-to-fore buzz word of ‘Globalization’. It gave birth to an unprecedented coalition of revulsion. The world felt sympathetic to the US as a victim and rallied behind it to pay back to the perpetrators. Non-state actors came to the fore who had found safe havens in poorly governed states and started calling the shots. Hosting state had no control over these elements and neither had the capacity or capability to exert control over them. The event of 9/11 also gave birth to global war on terror. Prior to 9/11, wars were fought between states, but after 9/11, based on UN Security Council Resolutions 1368 and 1373, war against non-state actors became a possibility. The concept endowed states with carte blanche to invade other states that potentially harboured terrorists. The intransigence of the utterly embarrassed sole superpower lumped genuine freedom struggles also with terrorism.

9/11 also brought an opportunity to the Inglorious ‘I’s ie India and Israel. Two arrogant states got a hay day to use bogey of terrorism for whipping opponents. Freedom struggles in Kashmir and Palestine were worst affected. Both India and Israel in cahoots with each other began to employ military might to not only crush these freedom struggles but also force the legitimate supporters to abandon their support. For over two decades this actual axis of evil, stage managed incidents, fabricated narratives and acted boorish to achieve nefarious designs. They held no bars in violenting global ethics, norms, conventions and morality.

Months of May and Jun 2025 have been defining months. In the month of May Inglorious India followed its well practiced playbook, conducted falseflag operation, framed Pakistan and launched unprovoked aggression against the latter. India acted arrogantly, intansigent, boorish, condensending, fabricated narratives and attempted to bite Pakistan. With blessing of Allah, support of China and outstanding performance of PAF, India got knocked out within first few hours of hostilities. Beyond those initial four hours it was mere accentuation of India’s vulnerabilities. The conflict left telling impact on multiple accounts.

Firstly, the US strategic partnership with India came under stress. The US which anticipated dressing down of Pakistan at the hands of India was compelled to broker a cease fire once chips were down. The US resolve to support India buckeled under pressure. Axis of US-Israel-India got beaten, humbled and exposed.

Secondly, a new troika emerged in the region comprising Pakistan, China and Bengladesh. India should have realised by now that while her allies are distant powers, this troika is surrounding India. India is now getting the taste of three front scenario – more menacing than two front scenario in which India embroiled Pakistan in last two decades.

Thirdly, all good things happened for Pakistan and all bad things happened for India. Pakistan got united, emerged as a confident, self-assured and resilient regional power. On the other hand, decades old playbook of India got exposed, US lost faith in India for expected role of India in the region, got isolated and Indians lost faith in its media, government and armed forces.

Moving to the other theater, the second Inglorious ‘I’ ie Israel launched unprovoked aggression against Iran. In this case arrogance and intransigence was many notches higher than that of India as the sole superpower has been inalienable veritable arm of Israel. They are extention of each other. The outcome was out of wildest dreams of the two. They launched aggression with mindset of vanquishing Iran in weeks. However, yet another embarrassment was waiting for them at the foot hills of Elburz Mountians. Iran which has withstood an onslaught for 4.5 decades unleached its national pride and resolve to humble the self-proclaimed mighty powers. Within a month the sole superpower was faced with yet another stark reality of beating of its closest ally at the hands of a resolute nation. The US had to broker another ceasefire within a month to save its love-bird.

Both these wars had serious implications for Pakistan. If war with India had prolonged, Pakistan’s economic, political and security vulnerabilities would have accentuated . Closure of hostilities within short time was a huge blessing of Allah. The war benefitted Pakistan in many ways but most prominently it put Pakistna on a track it was shying away. Friend and foe were clearly identifiable. Importance of Pakistan for China became crystal clear. An arrogant and intransigent, self-proclaimed regional policeman and net security provider ie India was cut to size. Pakistan’s future has become more secure and Sino-Pakistan relationship has further cemented.

On other hand, if Iran was defeated and a pro-Israel government was installed in Iran, Pakistan would have faced a nightmare. Inglorious ‘I’s would have surrounded Pakistan. China’s ambition of accessing Indian Ocean through CPEC would have been quashed.

In nutshell, outcome of both these wars have been promising for Pakistan, China and the region. These have put to rest the two Inglorious ‘I’s. Legitimate freedom struggles will get new lives. Eastern Bloc has emerged more confident and Western Bloc seems stressed. CPEC seems secured and future isolation of India seems more likely. Transition of conflict-prone, Indian-centric South Asia to growth-prone, Chinese-centric South Asia has become more likely.

If sense prevails and there are no more hostililities, the region will do better under Chiense influence and lesser influence of Western powers.

We are living in interesting times. The world is witnessing multidimensional transitions and so is the region. In the globalised-global village apparently localised issues have global linkages.

Isreal-Iran war which had gestation period of over 45 years has finally come to roost. For pretty long time Iran has been a soar in eye for greater design in the ME. Elimination of this soar was urgently needed. 45 years were taken to weaken Iran through sanctions, embargoes, series of assassinations, seeding of agents and degradation of proxies. It was resolve of the nation for which adversaries took so long. Finally cat is out of the bag.

Within the region, greater objective is regime change while as happened in case of Iraq, nuclear weapons are just a casus belli for the War. A pro-Israel regime in Iran will pave the way for greater Israel and ostensibly a secure Israel.

Regime change is also linked to greater designs. It’s well know that power is shifting from the West to the East, China is emerging as a superpower to challenge status of the US, global order is transforming from Liberal to a Realist order. It’s critical for the US to block rise of China. The US was earlier focused on Indo-Pacific region whereas China flexed its muscles to the West. In 2000s and 2010s the US rolled out multiple strategies all centred on Pacific to block China in that region. However, China played smart and unveiled its plans for Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. BRI seems a masterly stroke. Firstly, it avoids the US in Indo-Pacific and takes westerly direction, secondly, it caters for all three theories of 20th Century Geopolitics ie Mckinder, Spykman and Mahan and thirdly it incentivises the EU to join Chinese mega system.

Ever since unveiling of BRI, China seems to be focused on Indian Ocean for its westwards ambitions. Robert D Kaplan had declared Indian Ocean to be centre stage of rivalry of 21st Century. CPEC one of the six corridors of BRI provides China with direct access to Indian Ocean. Similar access sought by erstwhile USSR was blocked by the West in 2080s. CPEC stands head and shoulders above rest of corridors for being linchpin, early-harvest, bilateral, shortest and opening right at mouth of Persian Gulf. Success or failure of CPEC will define the outcome of BRI.

In this milieu, logically speaking, blocking of CPEC should be a high priority objective of the US. All indicators point to that. The objectives of a-pro-Israel government in Iran bases in Pakistan and weaning of Pakistan away from China are all aimed at CPEC and blocking access of China to Indian Ocean.

In the past Pakistan has rendered unprecedented services to the US but at the cost of multidimensional losses. Loss of national character being the biggest. The present state of the country has been direct product of alignment with the West. Though individuals got benefited but the state suffered. To top it all, the US always used Pakistan and dumped it. Each time it was hoped this time they will not dump it but each time they did.

Based on our past bitter experiences and the changing global order, it is hoped and prayed that this time around Pakistan doesn’t yet again fall a prey. It is hoped Pakistan will safeguard its national interests for our future generations.

Tag lines

: Wordly Teacher

: Selfless Service (SLS)

: Benificiary will not need to pay back in any kind less being better and prayers

: What is a good man but a bad man’s teacher? What is a bad man but a good man’s job? Tao Te Ching

My thoughts are based on the following assumptions

1. Societal decay has occurred in Pakistan due to prolonged conflict
2. Grooming places of youth ie mosque, school and home are dysfunctional or ineffective.
3. Societal evolution is far from being ideal
4. Life has become complex, challenging and social media is impacting psychology of adolescents
5. Stress, anxiety and waywardness are rampant

Recently we lost two young souls. One to death and second possibly to gallows. Sana Yousaf murder shook the nation. Both were teenagers, full of life and had a future ahead. We lost them to collective callousness, indifference and apathy of the society. This isn’t first horrific incident of its kind and God forsake won’t be last one too.

From Mad, Mad, Mad World (title of a movie of 60s) it has transitioned to Crazy, Crazy, Crazy World. Sudden rise in popularity, fame, stature and money is very much possible but laden with dangers. Qandeel Baloch was probably first victim to such phenomenon and Sana Yousaf is the recent. Many young people fell victim to such temptations. There is an old adage, “Jo jitna tez bhagta hai utna hee buri tarha girta hai” (the one who tries to run too fast, falls very badly).

It’s a harsh reality that our youth is haunted by bitter realities and challenges of complex life. What options do they have:

1. Go to a religious teacher, what we call as Peer. The fact of the matter is, it’s very hard to find a genuine Peer or Hakeem. Peers have hidden motives and Hakeems give steroids. So there is an attached price.
2. Go to a qualified psychiatrist, which costs money.
3. Discuss with parents, mostly there is shyness or aversion due to parents being formal and fear of retribution.

The problem is there, the solution is needed. Is it enough as a society to cry over a horrific incident, get into blame and shame, quickly forget and wait for next horrific incident.

I am not a professional, I am not even a pious man, however, I am endowed with spirit to contribute, I have a keen eye for societal ills and feel myself as a responsible senior citizen. I am at the stage of delivering to the society. I tried my skills in the past in counselling young people with good results. I can devote my time for a selfless and free counselling to the young individuals who feel the need. Tony Robbins is my ideal but may be he charges money but I want to do as service to society. Individuals seeking this support will be treated as sons and daughters. Method and mode will be the choice of the seeker.

I also hope if this idea gets traction, more senior citizens may join this journey.

May Allah guide us to help our youth, stay sincere to cause and enable us to contribute.

I came across this article by Nirupama Rao. It was mind-boggling to read this article. It could be one of these three versions:

1. Sarcastic dissonance
2. Bitter awakening
3. Blinding Flash of the obvious

If this article was written prior to recent Indo-Pakistan conflict, I would have taken it in a different stead. But it has been written on 3 Jun.

Why it could be a Sarcastic Dissonace? We have seen humiliation of India at the hands of Pakistan. If nothing else, Pakistan has gained appreciably in its statue. India was humbled and its stature was severely dented. Is it out of sheer frustration that the author is trying to bury her head in sand. Who in a normal senses can deny emphatic presence of Pakistan. India and its ahutors should rather show some grace by accepting the reality of power potential of Pakistan. Complete comity of nations have admired success of Pakistan. And here is a learned author seemingly terming Pakistan as a non-entity. It is said in Urdu language, “if a pigeon closes its eyes, it doesn’t mean that cat will not be able to see it or hunt it”. The author is trying to close her eyes like a pigeon that will not make the reality to go away.

Why it could be seen as a bitter awakening?India is being tipped by the US as counter balance to China. India and China are contesting on Indian Ocean. India calls it as its personal lake whereas China sees it as global common. The author is trying to woo China. Too good thing to happen. Its highly desireable by hapless people of South Asia who have suffered due to hegemonic designs of India. May be India is getting a bitter awakening to mend its fences with China. Indeed it will be a great happening for least integrated and most impoverished region of South Asia. But there is a caveat. In such a geostrategic setting, India will have a similar status of a small fiddle to China as India wishes for Pakistan.

Why it could be Blinding Flash of the Obvious (BFO)? They say “jaanain na jaanain Gul hee na jaanain, baagh to saraa jaanain hai” (strangely its only flower which doesn’t know, whereas whole garden knows). The whole World knows how strategic equation has altered in South Asia less of course Nirupama Rao. Either she was asleep or she is shying away from accepting realities.

She has called Pakistan as “perennial disruptor”, again she couldn’t be farther from reality. It’s India which imposes Kautilian Dictum on South Asia. Kautilia had said once there is a giant surrounded by small states, it will eat up smaller states as “a large fish eats up small fish”. Coupled with this conflict-based ideology of India and condescending, boorish and overbearing attitude of India towards its neighbours, makes India a troublesome country. Actual perennial disruptor is India which has been a revisionist state. It’s matter of pot calling the cattle black.

Oh my Gosh, Pakistan is a predatory state. Dear Nirupama Rao, where are you sleeping. How could you be so illogical. India has had problems with all of its neighbours, starting from Goa, Junagarh, Hyderabad, Sikkim, Kashmir, the lust of India to annex territories is insatiable. Bad days for India are just beginning. The neighbours who have all along suffered due to intransigence of India will nibble at it once cajoled by China. Only logical recommendation in her article is to mend fences with China, accept might of China, find its own place and behave like a small fiddle.

Few more pearls of wisdom, “decouple China and Pakistan by treating China as systemic peer and Pakistan as a tactical irritant”. Wao, China is competing with the US for a superpower status, India isn’t even a regional power. Expecting China to see India as a systemic peer is like a mouse competing with an elephant. A tactical irritant has profoundly bled India. Both assertions are illogical to say the least.

“India’s operational strategy must ensure that it never has to fight both adversaries simultaneously”. A huge wish list. Indian Army Chief Deepak Kapoor had said in mid 2000s that India will sort out Pakistan in two weeks and shift its Center of Gravity to China border. Those lofty claims have come to bitter awakening. India will not fight a two-front war, it will rather fight a mutiple-front or a three-front war unless it doesn’t behave like a responsible state.

“Asia and Asians must be principal stake holders in their security architecture”. Indeed it’s on the horizon. Asia is rising but India is doing bidding for the US. Parag Khanna has said, first Asia will be Asianised and then the World will be Asianised. Yes India can be a bonafide stake holder provided, it comes to the right side of the room. Become a poodle of China and join Asianisation of Asia.

The author has termed India as a great power. Ambassador Riaz Khokhar had said, India is big but it isn’t great. For being great one has to have big heart. I wish India transitions from being big to being great. It’s a tall order seeing meanness of Indian mindset.

On the whole India is betting on a horse which is not only distant power but also down the hill. Conversely Pakistan has an ally which is neighbour and going up the hill. India’s alliances are with extra regional powers. Pakistan’s alliances are with regional powers. India should keep its fingers crossed and start to behave. The only positive thing I have noticed in this article is that there seems to be bitter awakening. Sense is beginning prevail that India should not contest China. I wish it happens and India joins CPEC not as spoiler but as a supportive partner.

Nations are not made by wealth, natural resources or history. These are made by Human Resource Development and more so by strategic thought or collective psyche of the people. India has peculiar and displayed collective mindset which I will refer to as strategic thought. India is big but not great as said by Ambassdor Riaz Khokhar (Allah may bless his soul). To be great one has to have a big heart. Secondly Indian strategic thought is based on two key postulates ie Chanakya Doctrine and Hindutva. Both these ideologies are conflict-based. India is shackled by its mindset and can never fit into the role of net-security-provider as envisioned by the US.

Now lets focus on Idia’s past which defines its strategic thought. It is a stratified society with embedded religious bigotry, intolerance, complexes and backwardness. I will suggest the reader to watch You Tube video, Hinduism and Islam by Ahmed Deedat. Indian Ambassador Rajesh Sikri had said India suffers from an image of ugly big brother which has been boorish, condescending and overbearing towards its neighbors.

The physical giantness of India imposes Kautalian Dictum on South Asia. Chanakya Kautilia had said “Once a giant is surrounded by smaller states, the giant will eat up smaller states as big fish eats up smaller fish”. This structural default of South Asia coupled with conflict-driven strategic thought of India and its attitude towards neighbors have left South Asia as the least integrated, the most impoverished and the most conflict-prone region of the World.

Moving on to the future one can glean from the past that, Indian-centric South Asia has been backward and conflict prone. Future of South Asia and of India is being defined by some significant developments.

China: a neighbor of South Asia has been a giant. It is emerging as a challenger to the sole superpower of the World. China’s monumental rise is reverberating the whole world and more so immediate neighborhood. India as a challenger to the rise of China has found natural convergence of strategic interests with the US. However, the US is a waning and a distant power while China is a waxing and a neighbor. So a serious dilemma for India. Recent Indo-Pakistan conflict has brought out a stark reality that India seriously lacks potential, wherewithal, and capacity to challenge China. This conflict has put to test the tall and lofty claims of India. India has shamed all of its allies.

Consequent to this conflict, some strategic developments should be nightmarish for India. India kept Pakistan embroiled in a two-front scenario for two decades but the tables are turning now. India might be faced with a three front scenario ie Pakistan, China and Bangla Desh. I had predicted sometime back that a time will come once mistreated neighbors of India will start nibbling at it. The time has come. Bangladesh has anti-India government which is moving closer to Pakistan and China. Other neighbors are also beginning to gravitate towards China.

There is a talk of Greater South Asia comprising present South Asia, China, Central Asian Republics and Trukey. South Asia will become China-Centric instead of earstwhile India-Centric. China-Centric South Asia will be integrated and growth-prone region. India will be marginalised unless it joins the Chinese megasystem.

China is becoming more assertive in regions surrounding India. Adversaries always attempt to attain a position of advantage for the time of a showdown. Seven sister states form a strategic vulnerability of India. There are cessationist movements there and these states are linked with Indian mainland through a vulnerable Chichen- Neck named Siliguri Corridor. 2017 onwards there have been military developments in Doklam and Galwan Valley of Ladakh region which have positioned China to sever Chicken-neck at time of need. Besides this China has also become more assertive in Arunachal Pardesh. After Indo-Pakistan conflict there are news that China is building J 35 capable airbase at Lalmonirhat – a district of Rangpur Division of Bangladesh. The location is perilously close to the Chicken-neck. India must be shuddering for what is it coming for.

Arming of Pakistan and Chinese plan to construct World’s biggest dam on Brahamputra River in Medog county of Tibet near Indian border must be creating reverberations in India. This dam will create 3 times more energy than presently World’s biggest dam ie Three Gorges Dam. China has already reduced flow of water in Sutlej river by 75% in last 5 years. China is upper riparian for India as India is for Pakistan.

Couple of years ago, China had thrown India out of Iran and now by encouraging reconciliation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, China will do same with India via-a-vis Afghanistan. The Nepalese government is cozying up with China while Bhutan still maintains a neutral stance. Its just a matter of time that these countries will gravitate towards China. Sri Lanka, Maldives and Seychelles are Island countries which are important for Sino-India rivalry in Indian Ocean. A set of ports in these countries forms part of String of Pearls of China and another may form part of Neckalce of Diamonds of India.

On the whole a bigger giant is rising right next to India. India itself a giant has no option but to contest the rise of bigger giant. However bigger giant has a global outreach, ambitions and outlook whereas India is faced with a severely dented regional outlook. Once the US shrinks as natural corrolary to its waning, India will be left to the mercy of the bigger giant. India has no chance of winning the rivalry in Indian Ocean against China. Thus the encirclement of India is more probable than that of China. Nibbling of India by maltreated neighbors is also highly likely.

China and Pakistan are becoming conjoined twins. The future destiny of both the countries is mutually assured. China has stood by Pakistan through thick and thin and these are seen as iron-clad brothers. However, occasionally apprehensions have set in due to Pakistan’s alignment with the West. An honest CBA of Pakistan’s alignment with the West tells negative results for the former.

China faces Malacca Dilemma due to the long, time-intensive, cost intensive, circuitous and vulnerable trade route through Malacca strait. In ealy 70s Pakistan helped China to open to the world both physically as well as diplomatically. Karakoram Highway was physical connection where as diplomatically China opened to the US with support of Pakistan.

China is emerging as the sole challenger to the US’ global hegemony. To achieve this objective China is looking at dominating Eurasian Landmass (also know as World Island and Pivot Area) and getting direct access to Indian Ocean which is projected as centre stage of rivalry for 21st century. The former is being achieved through BRI and latter through CPEC. Both are meant to mitigate geographic limitation of China ie Malacca Dilemma. CPEC is pilot project of BRI, success of which will dictate the trajectory of BRI.

Success of CPEC lies in its secure execution as restraining forces led by the US and India are bent upon scuttling it. CPEC targeting security challenges are mounting. Pakistan is doing its bid but China being bigger player is bidding to secure CPEC.

A belligerent India happens to be one of the main threats to CPEC. India continued with its rhetoric of resting GB and AJK back from Pakistan. GB is one of the extremities of CPEC. An endangered GB will endanger CPEC. Indo-China border dispute in Ladakh (Doklam and Galawan Valley) started in 2017. Firstly it was meant to position China in an advantageous position for Siliguri Corridor (linking seven sister states with mainland India). Secondly it was meant to caution India to stop thinking of GB. By implication, China has secured CPEC against a primary threat.

Restive Balochistan is second extremity of CPEC. India is also fomenting trouble there to endanger CPEC. India was collaborating with Iran to to achieve this objective. In 2012, RAW had established a training centre at Chahbahar of which Gulbashan Yadev was a product. Weaning Iran away from India was critical for securing the second extremity of CPEC. China did this too. China offered Iran, an investment of US $400 B over 25 years. Chahbahar port which was earlier part of Necklace of Diamond of India has now been shifted to String of Pearls of China.

Instability in Afghanistan is another major threat not only to CPEC but also to New Eurasian Landbridge (second main corridor of BRI passing through Kazakhstan). Stability in Afghanistan has never been as critical as its now. Allama Iqbal in 1930s had called Afghanistan as heart of Asia. He had said if heart was dysfunctional, the whole body will be affected. Stability in Afghanistan is critical for future ambitions of China. To this end, firstly, China is employing growth and development strategy to stabilise it. Secondly China has recently organized a high level meeting of warring two neighbors. Some very positive aspects of this conference have emerged.

On the whole, I see China is attempting to secure CPEC which is the primary concern of Pakistan. So virtually, China is doing the bidding of Pakistan.

Alhamdulillah, Pakistan has all the reasons to rejoice, celebrate and enjoy a thumping victory. We have ended the war on a favorable note. However, the victory should not go to our heads. A wise person will be humbled by a victory rather than getting arrogant. A wise man will do an honest and fair catharsis. If we see Modi, it was his arrogance which brought him to this. In last 10 years, he so vociferously conducted and got away with his heinous crimes that he began to overestimate himself.

BJP has always been a blessing in disguise for Pakistan. BJP is antithesis to secularism and pro-thesis to two-nation theory; both go in our favour. Particularly in case of Pahalgam incident, Modi has again done us a favour. He has put us in a direction we were shying away to go. We have been an ally of the US for over seven decades. A cost benefit analysis of this alliance gives an unfavourable outcome for Pakistan. This crisis has yet again validated that China has stood by us through thick and thin. Notwithstanding our dilly-dallying.

Indeed we have won but far more important rounds are still left. If I do honest catharsis, the victory has been brought by mature leadership, better strategy and bravery of valiant sons of soil. No doubt about that. However, as we believe nothing happens without blessings of Allah. There are three more significant contributing factors. Firstly, last minute support of China sans which the situation could have been different, secondly poor leadership and arrogance-based strategy of the opponent and thirdly unified response of the nation. All these are not guaranteed for every showdown.

Coming to the opening question ie what we need to do now?

First and foremost is putting our house in order. We are politically fragmented, economically vulnerable and internally agitated. Inter provincial harmony is at the lowest ebb. A year ago a friend asked me what did I expect to come out of the mess we had created. I replied my worry was that there may be a big incident after which we would regret. He asked me what could be that incident. I replied, God for sake, killing of a bigwig, internal strife or showdown with India. Unfortunately last one has happened. Getting out of this episode can humble us as well as make us arrogant. It’s our choice. I see it as a wake up call. We need to expeditiously put our house in order. Rule of law, justice, human rights, respect for constitution are much desired.

Secondly, our enemy is cunning, mean to the core and deceitful. Howsoever immoral we might think it to be, but he has attained mastery in creating false narratives. On the narrative front he will try to turn defeat into victory. He is already treading on that path. Our media has conducted far better in the round of hostilities. Now we shall be fighting yet another battle, ie battle of narratives. In modern war winning battle of narrative is far more important than winning physical battle. Our diplomats will have to be offensive, aggressive and forthcoming. Our government will have to designate statesmen to take to media and talks.

Thirdly we ought to be far more clear about our strategic orientation. The US is a distant power and China is a neighbour. The US is waning and China is waxing. The US has used us as a client and China has stood by us through thick and thin. Whole world is gravitating towards China but China’s iron-clad brother is ambivalent. I feel two countries’ future as mutually assured destiny (MAD). Besides financial foes, Pakistan is lacking in key qualities of a good society, viz, discipline, patience, wisdom, knowledge, harmony and justice. These attributes are in abundance available in China. I say besides FDI, Pakistan needs FDIK (foreign direct investment of knowledge). It has taken us around one and a half century to follow injunction of Holy Prophet PBUH, but still it’s not too late.

Indian centric South Asia has been conflict-prone and suffers from Kautilian Dictum (a giant in the middle eats away smaller counties, like a large fish eats away smaller fish). India has been boorish, condescending and overbearing towards its neighbours. It gives us an opportunity. We should solidify our partnership with China and Bangladesh and serve in transition of South Asia from conflict-prone, least integrated and most impoverished to a connected and growth-prone South Asia.

A round of table talk is expected. Though Indians are beginning to disown such a commitment. If US can deliver and make its Strategic Partner come to the table, it will be incumbent upon us to win battle on the table too. Pakistan has been wronged repeatedly by BJP Govt. After every short while, India does a false-flag operation puts it on Pakistan and takes whole region as well as the world to the brink of war. Such non-sense has to end. India must respect whole-heartedly the rights of lower riparian. Kashmir dispute has held hostage the peace in entire region. It so frequently causes a nuclear scare. It is in the interests of the World, South Asia and people of the region that this issue is resolved. Else South Asia will continue to be the least integrated, the most impoverished and the most conflict-prone region of the world.

Pakistan must go for indigenous development of our weapon systems. Certain clear inadequacies have come up in recent conflict. In order to reduce our reliance on big powers we should focus on made in Pakistan systems. It’s also need of hour that our political and national interests should converge. We should transit from traditional security to human security. We should transit from security state to an economic state. Our leaders should have people centric policies and not global-players-centric policies.

Allah may bless us wisdom and abilities to prepare for the next showdown which surely will come.