Watching President Trump’s diplomacy, I am reminded of the “Chicken” game. It has been popular in many countries particularly in the US. It is played by two drives each in a car. They drive into each other with a possibility of a fatal crash and see which one of the two chickens out. The one that swerves is called Chicken and the one who stays the course is the winner. In this game, both players before start of game commit some gimmicks to befool the other. They may wear dark glasses, make wind screen muddy, project themselves as insane, play loud music. All these gimmicks are made to make the opponent believe that crash might occur inadvertently. So the weaker at heart chickens out.
There are certain strategies employed by each player to defeat the other like:
- Commitment Strategies:Players can attempt to commit to not swerving, making it a credible threat that the other player must react to. This might involve actions that make it seem impossible to swerve or signaling a strong resolve not to.
- Preemptive Actions:Launching an initiative before the opponent has a chance to react can force them to play defensively. This can create a situation where the opponent is reacting to your moves, rather than initiating their own
- Brinkmanship: Players might push the situation to the brink of a negative outcome (like a crash) to try and force the other player to concede.
- Mixed Strategies:Players might adopt a strategy where they sometimes choose one action and sometimes another, making it harder for the opponent to predict their behavior.
Bertrand Russel wrote this about this game:
Since the nuclear stalemate became apparent, the governments of East and West have adopted the policy that Mr Dulles calls ‘brinkmanship’. This is a policy adapted from a sport that, I am told, is practiced by some youthful degenerates. This sport is called ‘Chicken!’…..As they approach each other, mutual destruction becomes more and more imminent. If one of them swerves from the white line before the other, the other, as they pass, shouts ‘Chicken!’, and the one who has swerved becomes an object of contempt. As played by irresponsible boys, this game is considered decadent and immoral, though only the lives of the players are risked. But when the game is played by eminent statesmen, who risk not only their own lives but those of many hundreds of millions of human beings, it is thought on both sides that the statesmen on one side are displaying a high degree of wisdom and courage, and only the statesmen on the other side are reprehensible. This, of course, is absurd. Both are to blame for playing such an incredibly dangerous game. The game may be played without misfortune a few times, but sooner or later, it will come to be felt that loss of face is more dreadful than nuclear annihilation. The moment will come when neither side can face the derisive cry of ‘Chicken!’ from the other side. When that moment comes, the statesmen of both sides will plunge the world into destruction.
Over a period of time President Trump has projected himself as brash, aggressive, bold, dauntless, and brink-man. He by design raises the bar for the opponent to make him acquiesce to the target the intended by him. In case of India there is a clash between Geopolitical interests and economic interests. President Trump for the time being is focusing more on the latter. US can never afford to lose India owing to its strategic rivalry with China. Although it seems the US has lost faith in capacity of India to compete China. Notwithstanding that, India still has great value for the US.
It seems presently President Trump is focusing on immediate objective of weaning Pakistan away from China. This objective if achieved can serve better to compliment overall objective of containment of China. Once this objective is achieved the US will once again shift to rely on India for further building on this objective.
Pakistan has to walk a tight rope. It can annoy none of the two ie the US and China. However, its very evident that future of Pakistan lies with China. All depends how well can Pakistan do the balancing act in diplomacy while safeguarding its national interests.
Sammilogger 