We are living in interesting times. 15 times ahead of this an established global power was challenged by an emerging global power. We are lucky to witness this rare happening. Ancient Greek Historian Thucydides predicted chances of war in such a scenario. The same is called Thucydides Trap. 11 out of 15 such transitions invoked wars. Only 4 were peaceful. Graham Allison questioned in his recent book, Is World destined for war?
China is waxing and the US is waning. However, once an empire has to face a dawning but bitter reality, the empire becomes berserk and erratic. The process of crumbling of an empire spans over decades. The subtle indications start popping up. I once asked a learned that what were common factors in downfall of the empires. He mentioned two, over stretch and bad leaders. These indicators are visible in case of the US. Downfall of an empire is like sinking of a ship, it takes time but it also causes sinking of smaller surrounding boats.
The period of supremacy of the US may be shortest as compared to preceding empires. It may be attributed to the US being brute, arrogant and unjust empire. A Chinese scholar says, since Columbus strategic thought of the West has been based on three cardinals; clash of civilisations, divide & rule and ethic cleansing. These cardinals are even visible today in an enlightened World of 21st Century. Today’s US seems agitated, frustrated and reactive. Faced with cruelty of time, bitterness of reality, BFO (blinding flash of the obvious) and difficulty of coming to terms the US has become an agent of chaos.
China is propagating opposing strategic thought of its own, based on, integration of civilizations, mutual growth and development and win-win cooper.
The most important aspect of domination of an empire lies in its writ over rest of the World. In its rise, the US first claimed domination of Western Hemisphere in 1823 through Monroe Doctrine and then extended its domination over entire World. Now I notice a process of regression. In 1991, in first Gulf war, the complete World stood by the US, in 2001, in second Gulf War, half of the World stood by the US, in 2017, in declaring Jerusalem as capital of Israel, no one stood by the US less staunch allies and in 2026, in war against Iran even the staunchest of allies are not standing with the US. That’s about regression of the writ of the US.
In spacial regression, first the US has been pushed out of Pivot Area of the World (the World Island). Secondly the home hemisphere of the US has come under threat. Thus by implication the US has to regress to take care of its backyard. Western hemisphere is threatened from the North due to opening of arctic trade corridor for Russia, in Latin America due to Chinese domination of Panama Canal and in South America due to investments of China and BRICS. The scrambling of the US to possess, Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal, Venezuela and Cuba are means to same end ie securing Western Hemisphere.
President Trump wants to regain production glory of the US, however the World has changed a lot since 9/11. Rivals of the US have greater influence over raw materials and energy resources of the globe. Thus occupation of Venezuela and efforts to subdue Iran are meant to exert control over energy resources. While China is denying rare earth elements to the US, the US may get in a position to deny energy. After astounding success in Venezuela, the US became intoxicated with arrogance and ventured to overpower Iran. However, seemingly the US is getting bogged down.
2025 and 2026 have been defining years to hasten the process of downfall of the US. Rivals of the US were beneficiary of two wars of 2025 ie India-Pakistan and Isreal-Iran. Western technology was exposed and beaten. 2026 has been even worst and Western Technology has been quashed. The era of naval domination has come to an end. Aircraft carriers became a liability rather than a strength. The era of air domination has come to an end. Iran with only missiles and drones ripped apart defences of the opponents. Era of stealth technology has come to an end. F-35 the symbol of pride has been locked and shot down by inexpensive equipment.
The biggest and profoundest decay has been that of ethics and morals. The US is apparently stooping to the level of third world in ethics and morality. Starting from allegations of rigging in past three elections, stooping to lowest ebb in pre-election debates, riots, attack on capital hill, Epstein files, human rights violations, supporting and abetting injustice and cruelty, ending rule based world are few glaring indicators.
In nutshell, technological domination gone, alliances falling apart, Petrodollar under threat, domination over Western Hemisphere being challenged, eroding writ over the World, moral decay, policy of might is right and rising rivals have made the US a beast in rage and anger. However this very rage and anger with make it commit greater mistakes. So far the rivals are just sitting and watching. They are not intervening in makings of faltering enemy.
Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad – this is apparently happening to the US.
Sammilogger 