We are living in interesting times. The world is witnessing multidimensional transitions and so is the region. In the globalised-global village apparently localised issues have global linkages.
Isreal-Iran war which had gestation period of over 45 years has finally come to roost. For pretty long time Iran has been a soar in eye for greater design in the ME. Elimination of this soar was urgently needed. 45 years were taken to weaken Iran through sanctions, embargoes, series of assassinations, seeding of agents and degradation of proxies. It was resolve of the nation for which adversaries took so long. Finally cat is out of the bag.
Within the region, greater objective is regime change while as happened in case of Iraq, nuclear weapons are just a casus belli for the War. A pro-Israel regime in Iran will pave the way for greater Israel and ostensibly a secure Israel.
Regime change is also linked to greater designs. It’s well know that power is shifting from the West to the East, China is emerging as a superpower to challenge status of the US, global order is transforming from Liberal to a Realist order. It’s critical for the US to block rise of China. The US was earlier focused on Indo-Pacific region whereas China flexed its muscles to the West. In 2000s and 2010s the US rolled out multiple strategies all centred on Pacific to block China in that region. However, China played smart and unveiled its plans for Belt and Road Initiative in 2013. BRI seems a masterly stroke. Firstly, it avoids the US in Indo-Pacific and takes westerly direction, secondly, it caters for all three theories of 20th Century Geopolitics ie Mckinder, Spykman and Mahan and thirdly it incentivises the EU to join Chinese mega system.
Ever since unveiling of BRI, China seems to be focused on Indian Ocean for its westwards ambitions. Robert D Kaplan had declared Indian Ocean to be centre stage of rivalry of 21st Century. CPEC one of the six corridors of BRI provides China with direct access to Indian Ocean. Similar access sought by erstwhile USSR was blocked by the West in 2080s. CPEC stands head and shoulders above rest of corridors for being linchpin, early-harvest, bilateral, shortest and opening right at mouth of Persian Gulf. Success or failure of CPEC will define the outcome of BRI.
In this milieu, logically speaking, blocking of CPEC should be a high priority objective of the US. All indicators point to that. The objectives of a-pro-Israel government in Iran bases in Pakistan and weaning of Pakistan away from China are all aimed at CPEC and blocking access of China to Indian Ocean.
In the past Pakistan has rendered unprecedented services to the US but at the cost of multidimensional losses. Loss of national character being the biggest. The present state of the country has been direct product of alignment with the West. Though individuals got benefited but the state suffered. To top it all, the US always used Pakistan and dumped it. Each time it was hoped this time they will not dump it but each time they did.
Based on our past bitter experiences and the changing global order, it is hoped and prayed that this time around Pakistan doesn’t yet again fall a prey. It is hoped Pakistan will safeguard its national interests for our future generations.
Sammilogger 