Nations are not made by wealth, natural resources or history. These are made by Human Resource Development and more so by strategic thought or collective psyche of the people. India has peculiar and displayed collective mindset which I will refer to as strategic thought. India is big but not great as said by Ambassdor Riaz Khokhar (Allah may bless his soul). To be great one has to have a big heart. Secondly Indian strategic thought is based on two key postulates ie Chanakya Doctrine and Hindutva. Both these ideologies are conflict-based. India is shackled by its mindset and can never fit into the role of net-security-provider as envisioned by the US.
Now lets focus on Idia’s past which defines its strategic thought. It is a stratified society with embedded religious bigotry, intolerance, complexes and backwardness. I will suggest the reader to watch You Tube video, Hinduism and Islam by Ahmed Deedat. Indian Ambassador Rajesh Sikri had said India suffers from an image of ugly big brother which has been boorish, condescending and overbearing towards its neighbors.
The physical giantness of India imposes Kautalian Dictum on South Asia. Chanakya Kautilia had said “Once a giant is surrounded by smaller states, the giant will eat up smaller states as big fish eats up smaller fish”. This structural default of South Asia coupled with conflict-driven strategic thought of India and its attitude towards neighbors have left South Asia as the least integrated, the most impoverished and the most conflict-prone region of the World.
Moving on to the future one can glean from the past that, Indian-centric South Asia has been backward and conflict prone. Future of South Asia and of India is being defined by some significant developments.
China: a neighbor of South Asia has been a giant. It is emerging as a challenger to the sole superpower of the World. China’s monumental rise is reverberating the whole world and more so immediate neighborhood. India as a challenger to the rise of China has found natural convergence of strategic interests with the US. However, the US is a waning and a distant power while China is a waxing and a neighbor. So a serious dilemma for India. Recent Indo-Pakistan conflict has brought out a stark reality that India seriously lacks potential, wherewithal, and capacity to challenge China. This conflict has put to test the tall and lofty claims of India. India has shamed all of its allies.
Consequent to this conflict, some strategic developments should be nightmarish for India. India kept Pakistan embroiled in a two-front scenario for two decades but the tables are turning now. India might be faced with a three front scenario ie Pakistan, China and Bangla Desh. I had predicted sometime back that a time will come once mistreated neighbors of India will start nibbling at it. The time has come. Bangladesh has anti-India government which is moving closer to Pakistan and China. Other neighbors are also beginning to gravitate towards China.
There is a talk of Greater South Asia comprising present South Asia, China, Central Asian Republics and Trukey. South Asia will become China-Centric instead of earstwhile India-Centric. China-Centric South Asia will be integrated and growth-prone region. India will be marginalised unless it joins the Chinese megasystem.
China is becoming more assertive in regions surrounding India. Adversaries always attempt to attain a position of advantage for the time of a showdown. Seven sister states form a strategic vulnerability of India. There are cessationist movements there and these states are linked with Indian mainland through a vulnerable Chichen- Neck named Siliguri Corridor. 2017 onwards there have been military developments in Doklam and Galwan Valley of Ladakh region which have positioned China to sever Chicken-neck at time of need. Besides this China has also become more assertive in Arunachal Pardesh. After Indo-Pakistan conflict there are news that China is building J 35 capable airbase at Lalmonirhat – a district of Rangpur Division of Bangladesh. The location is perilously close to the Chicken-neck. India must be shuddering for what is it coming for.
Arming of Pakistan and Chinese plan to construct World’s biggest dam on Brahamputra River in Medog county of Tibet near Indian border must be creating reverberations in India. This dam will create 3 times more energy than presently World’s biggest dam ie Three Gorges Dam. China has already reduced flow of water in Sutlej river by 75% in last 5 years. China is upper riparian for India as India is for Pakistan.
Couple of years ago, China had thrown India out of Iran and now by encouraging reconciliation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, China will do same with India via-a-vis Afghanistan. The Nepalese government is cozying up with China while Bhutan still maintains a neutral stance. Its just a matter of time that these countries will gravitate towards China. Sri Lanka, Maldives and Seychelles are Island countries which are important for Sino-India rivalry in Indian Ocean. A set of ports in these countries forms part of String of Pearls of China and another may form part of Neckalce of Diamonds of India.
On the whole a bigger giant is rising right next to India. India itself a giant has no option but to contest the rise of bigger giant. However bigger giant has a global outreach, ambitions and outlook whereas India is faced with a severely dented regional outlook. Once the US shrinks as natural corrolary to its waning, India will be left to the mercy of the bigger giant. India has no chance of winning the rivalry in Indian Ocean against China. Thus the encirclement of India is more probable than that of China. Nibbling of India by maltreated neighbors is also highly likely.
Sammilogger 