China and Pakistan are becoming conjoined twins. The future destiny of both the countries is mutually assured. China has stood by Pakistan through thick and thin and these are seen as iron-clad brothers. However, occasionally apprehensions have set in due to Pakistan’s alignment with the West. An honest CBA of Pakistan’s alignment with the West tells negative results for the former.
China faces Malacca Dilemma due to the long, time-intensive, cost intensive, circuitous and vulnerable trade route through Malacca strait. In ealy 70s Pakistan helped China to open to the world both physically as well as diplomatically. Karakoram Highway was physical connection where as diplomatically China opened to the US with support of Pakistan.
China is emerging as the sole challenger to the US’ global hegemony. To achieve this objective China is looking at dominating Eurasian Landmass (also know as World Island and Pivot Area) and getting direct access to Indian Ocean which is projected as centre stage of rivalry for 21st century. The former is being achieved through BRI and latter through CPEC. Both are meant to mitigate geographic limitation of China ie Malacca Dilemma. CPEC is pilot project of BRI, success of which will dictate the trajectory of BRI.
Success of CPEC lies in its secure execution as restraining forces led by the US and India are bent upon scuttling it. CPEC targeting security challenges are mounting. Pakistan is doing its bid but China being bigger player is bidding to secure CPEC.
A belligerent India happens to be one of the main threats to CPEC. India continued with its rhetoric of resting GB and AJK back from Pakistan. GB is one of the extremities of CPEC. An endangered GB will endanger CPEC. Indo-China border dispute in Ladakh (Doklam and Galawan Valley) started in 2017. Firstly it was meant to position China in an advantageous position for Siliguri Corridor (linking seven sister states with mainland India). Secondly it was meant to caution India to stop thinking of GB. By implication, China has secured CPEC against a primary threat.
Restive Balochistan is second extremity of CPEC. India is also fomenting trouble there to endanger CPEC. India was collaborating with Iran to to achieve this objective. In 2012, RAW had established a training centre at Chahbahar of which Gulbashan Yadev was a product. Weaning Iran away from India was critical for securing the second extremity of CPEC. China did this too. China offered Iran, an investment of US $400 B over 25 years. Chahbahar port which was earlier part of Necklace of Diamond of India has now been shifted to String of Pearls of China.
Instability in Afghanistan is another major threat not only to CPEC but also to New Eurasian Landbridge (second main corridor of BRI passing through Kazakhstan). Stability in Afghanistan has never been as critical as its now. Allama Iqbal in 1930s had called Afghanistan as heart of Asia. He had said if heart was dysfunctional, the whole body will be affected. Stability in Afghanistan is critical for future ambitions of China. To this end, firstly, China is employing growth and development strategy to stabilise it. Secondly China has recently organized a high level meeting of warring two neighbors. Some very positive aspects of this conference have emerged.
On the whole, I see China is attempting to secure CPEC which is the primary concern of Pakistan. So virtually, China is doing the bidding of Pakistan.
Sammilogger 