I hold a doctorate on Strategic Security Management of CPEC. It involved identification of threats to CPEC. Above video prodded me to write this blog. It’s my considered opinion that if Pakistan loses opportunity of CPEC it will be biggest disservice to our future generations. IPakistan seems to be victim of Sino-US rivalry. shall support my contention based on few main arguments.
1. For its entire history, Pakistan has remained aligned with the West. All of its systems ie political, military, economic, judicial, and educational are based on Western knowledge. Pakistan is now faced with the stark need for strategic reorientation from the West to the East. This reorientation though need of hour warrants colossal efforts and will and is laden with challenges as the rise of China is being contested.
2. Alignment with the West has kept Pakistan on track of fighting and destruction. In 20 Century geopolitics Pakistan played pivotal role and suffered immensely. Only in GWOT the losses comprised that of blood ie 80k dead and triple than this maimed, financial ie $ 123 B, infrastructure and above all national character. On the whole, present state of Pakistan doesn’t speak well for this alignment of the past.
3. 21 Century Geopolitics has brought new opportunities and challenges for Pakistan. Towards end of decade of 2010s, emergence of CPEC’s opportunity converged with Pakistan’s winning of war on terror and a positive political transition. However, now there are reversals on all three accounts. On other hand, India has emerged as natural ally of the US and conduit for Sino-US rivalry-a hallmark of 21 Century Geopolitics. Logically speaking India would be now expected by the US to play a similar role in 21 C Geopolitics as Pakistan played in 20 C Geopolitics. Pakistan can thus achieve a break from fighting and destruction.
4. Indian Ocean is projected as Centre stage of rivalry for 21 C by Robert D Kaplan. Importance of IO was mentioned by Mahan a century ago as well as Admiral Stravidis recently. Through CPEC China gets direct access to this future playground. CPEC can convert China from one Ocean to two Ocean country and also mitigate Malacca Dilemma: thus Pakistan’s immense strategic importance though this time for good reasons.
5. Pakistan has remained a security state for its entire history, which has left many ill-effects. CPEC can transit Pakistan from a security to an economic state. A positive track is far better than negative one as if nothing more we can save the losses for being on negative track.
5. The US is a distant power whereas China is a neighbor. Relations with the US have been transactional and G2G. Relations with China have been P2P and all weather as China has stood by Pakistan through thick and thin. The US is a waning and China is a waxing power. Future of Pakistan lies with China.
5. South Asia on the whole is least integrated, the most impoverished and conflict prone region of the world. Prolonged conflict has left South Asia in bad state. CPEC is seen as Marshall Plan for conflict ravaged South Asia.
6. Federation of Pakistan seems loosely held. One part starts shaking after the other. CPEC will solidify the federation. China’s stakes will be integrated into regions claimed by India. It’s this realisation which compelled India to annex and consolidate IOK as China will become a strong stakeholder incase of GB and AJK. The same is highlighted in the above video.
7. Pakistan’s internal instability was foreseen and is becoming biggest hurdle to CPEC. It’s rather due to the contestation of CPEC by the inimical forces. Once China laid out BRI it resolved disputes with its 14 neighbours. Pakistan also needs to workout cooperative solutions with its neighbours for the bigger objective of CPEC which will benefit all.
8. It’s high time Pakistan should take care of own interests. Sri Lanka won battle against insurgency based on the Rajapaksa model. Second principle out of 8 said the world can go to hell we shall do what is right for our country…. A food for thought for Pakistan. Another principle was based on keeping neighbors on board. Pakistan should also work in cooperation with the neighbors.
9. Pakistan and China have their own motivations for CPEC. It can benefit both the countries and the region at large. While China has strategic gains, Pakistan is likely to gain economically.
Sammilogger 