Thucydides was a Greek historian and general 460-400 BC. He has been called the father of school of political realism. “Thucydides trap” was though coined by American political scientist Graham T. Allison in 2012 but was from the concept given by Thucydides. He had predicted outbreak of Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta in 431 BC purely because of Spartan’s fear of the growth of Athenian power.
Based on Thucydides concept, it is now said that an established power will always see an emerging power as a threat. Allison in his book, Destined for War (Can America and China escape Thucydides Trap?) has mentioned that out of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power; 12 ended in war. We are witnessing 17th transition of power from the West to the East in general and from the US to China in particular. The world is holding its breadth, keeping fingers crossed that 17th transition doesn’t end in a war.
The above cited video hypothesises a war between the West and the East. It has mentioned arraying of various countries in two contesting poles. It says the West wants to wage a war against Russia, China and Iran. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and India will be used by the West to fight this war. Particularly it talks of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will be meant to fight Iran.
It’s said that forewarned is forearmed. On one hand this video should raise our concerns and awareness as regards the West’s possible plans about us but on the other hand I see it as a mere conspiracy theory.
Rise of China for sure will not go uncontested. Many of efforts of the West are already visible and in play. I personally assess extremely low possibility of a war (as we perceive it ie a duel involving fighting with military munitions). There would be war but of different character like trade war, low intensity conflict, economic strangulation etc etc. The destructiveness of the modern means of war will itself deter a conventional war. No one will like to see total annihilation which is possible throw thermonuclear devises.
It is also said that hope for the best and remain prepared for the worst. A country like Pakistan can least afford another cycle of conflict based on global geopolitics. In 75 years’ life of Pakistan twice it was made to play the dirty role in global geopolitics. This role has virtually devastated the inner core of the country. Human loss, financial loss, loss of national character, creeping in of materialism and easy money have been few of damning curses faced by the country. Amongst many attributable factors, global geopolitics of 19th and 20th century are a major contributing factor to the present poor state of the country.
Pakistan should not side with the US for 21st century geopolitics. China has been our time tested friend and a neighbour. Whereas the US is a distant power which has mostly seen us as a client. Future of Pakistan is associated with China. Pakistan is critical for Chinese ambitions and China is critical for Pakistan. The sooner we decide upon our strategic direction the better it will be. Allah may guide us well.
Sammilogger 